Commercial returns tipped to surpass residential

By: Matthew Sullivan

Residential property is set to trail equities and commercial property as the nation’s leading wealth generator in the next decade, an ANZ report has claimed.

ANZ’s Asset Returns: Past, Present and Future report revealed that residential property was the highest returning asset over the past 24 years. Owner-occupied housing (OOH) generated the highest annual total returns of 12 per cent, followed by investor housing at 9.6 per cent and equities at 8.9 per cent.

However, ANZ’s key forecast assumptions for the next decade predict a fall of four per cent in the average annual total returns for residential property.

This is in sharp contrast to commercial property and equities, which are expected to experience a strong rise in returns, climbing to 9.5 per cent and nine per cent respectively.

“Our forecast of asset class returns shows that equities will be the strongest performer over the next 10 years. Commercial property also shows strong returns, sitting between equities and OOH.

“The forecast model, however, is very sensitive to assumptions,” the report cautioned.

“Risk adjusted forecasts show that equities and commercial property will have similar returns. Despite having a higher return, the increased risk in equities gives it a similar risk adjusted return to commercial property.”

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